Grigor Hakobyan

Summary While the American mainstream media was busy discussing the fly on Mike Pence’s head during Vice Presidential Debate, the Armenian-Turkish conflict entered the second week of violence across the entire line of contact (LoC) between the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan, and many regional and extra-regional powers took a neutral to stand and watch attentively from the sidelines. An attempt by Azerbaijani-Turkish and ISIS-linked formations to encircle Artsakh by taking over its strategic communication highways with the Republic of Armenia while carrying out devastating blows against Artsakh’s Defense Army in a new and enhanced blitzkrieg strategy has failed dramatically....

Summary In a time of pandemic where all warring countries and entities were asked to stop various conflicts to focus on containing the spread of COVID-19 virus around the world, Azerbaijan decided to conduct large scale military exercises on Armenian-Azerbaijani front lines along the borders of Artsakh and Republic of Armenia between May 18-24 without advance warning as required by international norms and conventions. While major military exercises were taking places at a distance of 800m-1km from the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontlines, a group of Azerbaijani special forces attempted to penetrate Armenian defense lines in the south of Artsakh....

SUMMARY Recent revelations by Bulgarian newspaper (Trud) of connections between Aliyev’s regime and the state-run Silk Way Airlines accused of shipping weapons and ammunition to various terrorist groups in the Middle East under diplomatic cover were hurriedly pushed under the rug military hardware from Russia, followed by its regular war rhetoric to take back Artsakh through military means. Similar tactics were utilized by Azerbajiani media last year, preceding the Four Day War in April of 2016 when international media was awash with revelations about billions of dollars’ worth of offshore accounts held by a number of foreign leaders, including Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev....

SUMMARY Constant violations of ceasefire along the Line of Contact culminated in a failed Azerbajiani military aggression against the Republic of Artsakh on April 2nd of 2016. The incident came to be known as the Four Day War in Armenia which ended on April 6, 2016 at the behest of Aliyev’s regime in light of a powerful and devastating Armenian military response in conjunction with immense pressure by the international community demanding from Azerbaijan to end the war as soon as possible....

SUMMARY As the dramatic events unfold in the Middle East a new map of the Near East is beginning to emerge. A new country is about to take stage in the region; a clash between major powers is about to break loose in Syria; and a new strategic realignment of regional powers and their corresponding super powers is taking shape while others are exiting the region. In the meantime, a rift is emerging between the US and its European allies over many issues including global warming, economic relations and security within Europe and around the European continent....

SUMMARY As the one year anniversary of the Four Day War in April of 2016 is fast approaching so is the military escalation along the frontlines in Artsakh gradually intensifying. Almost no week goes by without human losses suffered on either side of the unresolved conflict. Relative military parity established by the warring sides since last war coupled with a cold winter and barely passable roads in the region seemed to have deterred new Azerbaijani military aggression from resuming thus far, however as the weather warms up in addition to declining oil output and devaluation of the manat-Azerbaijani currency, and new accumulations of military capabilities by Azerbaijani military, Armenian armed forces are expecting to face yet another violent attempt by Aliyev’s government in Baku to forcefully change the status quo on the ground either this year or within next two years....

Summary For the past twenty six years Armenian strategic thinking in Armenia and diaspora was mostly reactive rather than proactive, static rather than flexible. Politically Armenia failed to register significant gains in its foreign policy and ended up significantly isolated in various international forums. Furthermore, Armenia lost its strategic significance in the eyes of the international community and became an irrelevant actor in the region. Thus the time has come for Armenia to reassess its national interests and play a pro-active role in the region and abroad that will enhance its national security, improve its economy and make Armenia matter in the region....

The highlights of 2016 for Armenia (if we can call them “high” lights) would be the Four Day War in April, the popular and violent acts of discontent in July, and the change of ruling government in September. For 2017 the outlook for the country may be grim as well, but hopeful as the newly formed cabinet lead by Karen Karapetyan makes efforts to reduce the corruption in the government, improve the nation’s defense capabilities and raise economic living standards for the populace....

Prologue The purpose of this article is to suggest political and geopolitical priorities for Armenia (including Artsakh) and the Armenian diaspora to focus on in an effort to secure the existence of the Armenian statehood and the Armenian nation for the next sixteen years. The timeframe provided divides one century into three equal parts, each thirty three years long until 2099. The article doesn’t attempt to predict any event or development in Armenia, the surrounding region or the world at large, and will not be focusing on mid-term and long-term goals....

“In my opinion we don’t have any other choice. Every Armenian knows that if we fail to defend this little sacred land, we’ll no longer exist.” Colonel Armen Vardanyan Director of Air Defense Forces of the Republic of Armenia. The quote is taken from a recent documentary called “My army. Our Piece of the Sky.” As the Four Day War in April has shown, the conventional warfare in Artsakh’s battlefield has dramatically changed since the 1990s....

BACKGROUND On July 17th, an armed opposition group stormed the Erebuni police station in Yerevan killing one policeman and wounding several others. They demanded the resignation of Armenia’s President Serj Sargsyan and liberation of their jailed leader Jirair Sefilian, a former Artsakh Liberation War veteran and the leader of a small opposition party called Founding Parliament. Furthermore, they encouraged the public to organize street demonstrations in support of their demands and vowed not to lay down their arms until their demands were fully met....

Part 1 PROLOGUE This article analyzes the role of regional and global players in the conflict as we try to identify who stood to benefit from the resumption of the war in the Caucasus, what caused the resumption of the war in the first place, what were the immediate consequences of this war for the parties involved and what are the most immediate military and political implications for the region in the coming years....

Background On the night of April 1 and morning of April 2, Azerbaijani forces attempted to break through Armenian defenses and occupy new positions on the border with Artsakh. The blitzkrieg involved heavy use of infantry, special forces, air forces, armored units, artillery and multiple launch rocket systems which were indiscriminately used against Armenian towns and villages in the border areas. Despite small gains made by invading forces in the Mardakert region, the counter-offensive launched by the Armenian forces drove Azerbaijani troops back to their original positions which allowed the Armenian side to regain its previously lost positions in the Mardakert region....

BACKGROUND On October 26, 2007, the former president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan announced his candidacy for president in the upcoming 2008 presidential elections to be held in Armenia during a major opposition rally at the Freedom Square, Yerevan. The rally was organized by the All Armenian National Movement (HHSh) in collaboration with Armenia’s People Party led by Stepan Demirchyan (HZhK) and Republic Party (HK) led by Aram Sarksyan (the brother of former Prime Minister of Armenia, Vazgen Sarksyan assassinated on October 27, 1999)....

Background: On May 12th Armenia held its widely anticipated parliamentary elections registering a major progress in the conduct of its elections and improvement in the transparency of the electoral process. Several thousand Armenian election observers representing dozens of local NGOs and political parties were joined by more than seven hundred foreign observers from CIS, EU and other European structures, invited to Armenia for the same purpose. Despite a number of registered voting irregularities that occurred at some polling stations where several of them resulted in criminal investigations by the Ministry of Justice, and continuous accusations by the radical Armenian opposition of government’s complicity in inappropriate acts constituting electoral fraud, such as bribing of voters at some polling stations and questionable methods of facilitating voter turn out, such as driving voters to the polling stations in mini vans and buses rented or owned by specific political parties taking part in the elections, the overall conduct of parliamentary elections in Armenia has received positive assessments from accredited foreign observers representing CIS, ODIHR/OSCE and PACE....

Balance of Power in South Caucasus and the Probability for Resumption of War in Nagorno Karabakh BACKGROUND In the weeks that followed the failed Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations in Rambouillet, the Azerbaijani government spared no time or energy to carry out major war propaganda through every media outlet in Azerbaijan. The constant barrage of threats against the republics of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh were rather unprecedented in their consistency and ferocity compared to similar remarks made by the Azerbaijani authorities for the last few years....

Foreign Peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh: another source for stability or cause for concern? BACKGROUND As the negotiations for the resolution of the Armenian-Azeri conflict over Nagorno Karabakh continue, a series of public statements were recently made by the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Chairman of OSCE Minsk Group Karel De Gucht and Project Director of International Crisis Group Sabine Frezier[1] that indicated that the possibility of deploying foreign peace keepers in the conflict zone is currently being discussed....

Background With the coming of the New Year, Armenia came face to face with a problem that may undermine its national security as a viable and sovereign nation-state. The problem in question is the role played by major business monopolies in Armenia and their ability to undermine the positive performance of Armenia’s economy. Among many, the problem that is most acute is Armenia’s heavy reliance on Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, for the deliveries of its natural gas to the country....