Hratch Tchilingirian

ALIYEV INVITES KOCHARIAN Global Strategies Shape Regional Developments When recently Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev invited Armenian President Robert Kocharian to attend an EU-sponsored international conference in Baku, to discuss prospects for the successful implementation of the TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia) program, many observers and analysts were caught off guard. In Armenia, the “surprise” invitation caused speculation on the real political motives of Azerbaijan. Some think the invitation is a diplomatic trap for Armenia, intended to embarrass the Kocharian administration and score political points for Aliyev....

An Analysis of 18 reports by Lawrence Sheets from Yerevan Reuters’ journalistic objectivity and reputation have become questionable in the wake of its deeply biased coverage of the recent presidential elections in Armenia. Content analysis of reports filed by its reporter, Lawrence Sheets, reveals a pattern of systematic bias and excessive subjectivity. Mr. Sheets’s 18 reports from Yerevan, between March 12 and March 31, clearly indicate a consistent pattern of bias and suspicious personal agenda in four areas: 1) unequal description of the two front-runners; 2) exclusion of non-OSCE observer statements and evaluations; 3) patronizing attitude toward Armenia; 4) excessive use of unnamed sources....

The presidential election on March 16 will bring to power Armenia’s second leader since independence. Prospects for democracy, political stability and international credibility depend on the holding of a free, fair and non- violent poll. After flawed parliamentary elections in 1995 and Ter-Petrosian’s disputed victory in the 1996 presidential contest, the conduct of the current poll will shape domestic prospects for democratic politics and international confidence in Armenia’s stable democratic development....

POLITICAL CRISIS IN ARMENIA Armenia faces its first major post-Soviet leadership change Weeks of political crisis in Armenia took a sharp turn when President Levon Ter-Petrosian announced his resignation on February 3. Forces opposed to Ter- Petrosian’s compromise stance on Nagorno-Karabakh appear set for ascendancy in Armenia for some time. The roots of the dispute which led to Levon Ter-Petrosian’s resignation as president lie in his decision last autumn to back the proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group for a resolution of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh....

In late December, the OSCE Ministerial Council in Copenhagen marked the end of Armenia’s yearlong efforts of political recovery subsequent to the Lisbon Summit in December 1996. Contrary to expectations and due to Armenia’s diplomatic efforts, the Ministerial Council did not make any substantive declarations concerning Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia characterized the outcome in Copenhagen as “positive,” since it did not create “additional obstacles” for the peace process in general. The resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will continue to dominate Armenia’s political and foreign relations agenda in 1998....

EVENT: Senior presidential adviser Jirair (Gerard) Libaridian resigned. SIGNIFICANCE: Libaridian’s departure comes at a time when Armenia has been mounting a relatively successful effort to build its international ties. ANALYSIS: On September 15, Jirair Libaridian announced that President Levon Ter-Petrosian had accepted his resignation as a senior foreign policy advisor, on purely personal grounds. Libaridian has been a key architect of Armenian foreign policy since independence, playing a central role in negotiations over Nagorno Karabakh and in warming relations with Turkey....