Review & Outlook

ALIYEV INVITES KOCHARIAN Global Strategies Shape Regional Developments When recently Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev invited Armenian President Robert Kocharian to attend an EU-sponsored international conference in Baku, to discuss prospects for the successful implementation of the TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia) program, many observers and analysts were caught off guard. In Armenia, the “surprise” invitation caused speculation on the real political motives of Azerbaijan. Some think the invitation is a diplomatic trap for Armenia, intended to embarrass the Kocharian administration and score political points for Aliyev....

The War Against Democracy The Turkish state has been fighting the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) since 1984. The protracted violence has turned into endless full-scale warfare that holds the whole of society in its grip. It now defines, conditions and shapes the entire Turkish polity. This is not the first time the Turkish state has fought the Kurds. According to former Turkish President Suleyman Demirel, the Kurds have risen up against the Turkish state 28 times, only to be ruthlessly overwhelmed by the Turkish Army....

While the presidential elections in Azerbaijan expected this autumn are not likely to bring any surprises, and the current president, as long as he is alive and well and continues in office, the Azerbaijani political scene can not be considered entirely stable and predictable. The main source of tension and potential future volatility is the uncertainty surrounding the issue of succession to Heydar Aliyev. As different political groups and personalities begin to position themselves for the coming struggle, the presidential campaign may become a proving ground of sorts for forces both outside and within the ruling elite who are looking beyond October 1998....

An Analysis of 18 reports by Lawrence Sheets from Yerevan Reuters’ journalistic objectivity and reputation have become questionable in the wake of its deeply biased coverage of the recent presidential elections in Armenia. Content analysis of reports filed by its reporter, Lawrence Sheets, reveals a pattern of systematic bias and excessive subjectivity. Mr. Sheets’s 18 reports from Yerevan, between March 12 and March 31, clearly indicate a consistent pattern of bias and suspicious personal agenda in four areas: 1) unequal description of the two front-runners; 2) exclusion of non-OSCE observer statements and evaluations; 3) patronizing attitude toward Armenia; 4) excessive use of unnamed sources....

The presidential election on March 16 will bring to power Armenia’s second leader since independence. Prospects for democracy, political stability and international credibility depend on the holding of a free, fair and non- violent poll. After flawed parliamentary elections in 1995 and Ter-Petrosian’s disputed victory in the 1996 presidential contest, the conduct of the current poll will shape domestic prospects for democratic politics and international confidence in Armenia’s stable democratic development....

With just a few days left before the presidential elections, the former Soviet Armenian boss of 14 years is reported to be in the lead. What do we have? Polls conducted by an organization ostensibly allied with the caretaker president Robert Kocharian, give Karen Demirchian some 40% of the vote. Kocharian himself is said to come second with 30% and the leader of the National-Democratic Union and first post-Soviet Armenian Prime-Minister Vazgen Manukian third with 15%....

The elections forthcoming this month provide Armenia with a remarkable opportunity to renew the economic transition that began six years ago. In some ways Armenia has proved itself resilient: its decline in living standards was one of the sharpest in transition (from 1990 levels output fell by almost two-thirds by 1994) and the depreciation of the savings of its citizens one of the largest. While it has displayed high growth rates since then, these come from a very low base....

The President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) resigned after his power ministers expressed their disagreement with his policies, several of his supporters quit, and the ruling coalition in the parliament collapsed. The apparent point of disagreement was the fate of Nagorno Karabakh, but there are several other causes which reinforced the main rift among the power elites and made the populace tacitly or overtly supportive of the ‘soft’ coup: rampant poverty, corruption and fixed parliamentary (1995) and presidential (1996) elections....

POLITICAL CRISIS IN ARMENIA Armenia faces its first major post-Soviet leadership change Weeks of political crisis in Armenia took a sharp turn when President Levon Ter-Petrosian announced his resignation on February 3. Forces opposed to Ter- Petrosian’s compromise stance on Nagorno-Karabakh appear set for ascendancy in Armenia for some time. The roots of the dispute which led to Levon Ter-Petrosian’s resignation as president lie in his decision last autumn to back the proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group for a resolution of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh....

In late December, the OSCE Ministerial Council in Copenhagen marked the end of Armenia’s yearlong efforts of political recovery subsequent to the Lisbon Summit in December 1996. Contrary to expectations and due to Armenia’s diplomatic efforts, the Ministerial Council did not make any substantive declarations concerning Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia characterized the outcome in Copenhagen as “positive,” since it did not create “additional obstacles” for the peace process in general. The resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will continue to dominate Armenia’s political and foreign relations agenda in 1998....