Background
On the night of April 1 and morning of April 2, Azerbaijani forces attempted to break through Armenian defenses and occupy new positions on the border with Artsakh. The blitzkrieg involved heavy use of infantry, special forces, air forces, armored units, artillery and multiple launch rocket systems which were indiscriminately used against Armenian towns and villages in the border areas. Despite small gains made by invading forces in the Mardakert region, the counter-offensive launched by the Armenian forces drove Azerbaijani troops back to their original positions which allowed the Armenian side to regain its previously lost positions in the Mardakert region.
Analysis
The four day war revealed a number of strengths and weaknesses among both sides of the conflict. The strength of Azerbaijani forces was composed of newly acquired weapon systems from Russia, Turkey and Israel which presented itself a formidable force. Another strength perhaps arguably could be attributed to numeric superiority of Azerbaijani forces both in personnel and military equipment along the line of contact where in some places it was reaching a ratio of 1:5 or more. The first time ever use of Israeli kamikaze drones, which had no equal in Armenian armaments, during this war may have been a surprise to regional and international geopolitical observers. Additionally, an element of surprise was yet another strength of the Azerbaijani side which fortunately, didn’t last long.
On the other hand, a number of weakness among Azerbaijani forces were also revealed. Specifically, a number of Azerbaijani units began to quickly retreat as soon as the Armenian side launched a counteroffensive against them. Many Azerbaijani soldiers were being executed by their own punishing battalions for retreating from their positions without orders to do so. According to some eyewitnesses, Azerbaijani commandos that broke into the Armenian village of Talish in the Mardakert Region were observed to be drunk or under influence of narcotic substances. As in previous war of 1988-1994, Azerbaijani forces didn’t shy away from committing war crimes against the Armenian civilians in the war zone. Lastly, despite their numerical superiority in personnel and equipment, Azerbaijani armed forces were quickly defeated and thrown back to their original positions by the Armenian armed forces.
The Armenian side also had many strengths, one of them being better military preparedness of every soldier and the situational awareness which allowed its armed forces to quickly regroup and go on a successful counter offensive. Previously lost positions were quickly recaptured in less than twenty four hours. High combat morale of Armenian soldiers allowed them to fight off their enemy which was numerically greater and better equipped. Furthermore, rapid self-mobilization of volunteer fighters in the Republics of Armenia and Artsakh followed by an influx of volunteers from diaspora in less than seventy two hours boosted soldiers’ morale on the frontline and put fear in the hearts of their enemies. Disorganized and rapid retreat of Azerbaijani armed formations in less than forty eight hours of the war was a testament to combat readiness of Armenian forces to fight off the enemy.
There were a few weaknesses revealed on the Armenian side also. Specifically, lack of sufficient transportation routes between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh which is limited to only Yerevan-Stepanakert highway via Berdzor might have delayed the arrival of reinforcements from the Republic of Armenia. Considering that the second transportation route, Vardenis-Karvachar is not completed yet and requires more time to be finished must be given more attention and considered to be a priority by both diaspora and relevant Armenian authorities. Another weakness has been the insecurity of air corridors between the two Armenian republics due to a danger stemming from the presence of Azerbaijani air defense units located very close to the line of contact. Inability to use air corridors between the two republics may have prevented the Armenian mainland from quickly airdropping necessary supplies, military aid and volunteer fighters in Artsakh.
Conclusion
There are many theories of what may have prompted the Azerbaijani side to launch military aggression against Armenian positions, towns and villages of Artsakh. The role of regional and extra-regional powers in this conflict is certainly not excluded. In light of the events that have transpired perhaps a different approach to the conflict is needed. Specifically, the fact that the Republic of Artsakh didn’t receive any international recognition by any country as a nation state, similar to Kosovo, despite its de-facto status of an independent state and a history of democratic elections for the past twenty five years should be taken into consideration. Perhaps one nation, two states solution similar to Greece and Cyprus should be given a closer look. Providing international recognition to the Republic of Artsakh within its present borders may be the right solution that is desperately missing from the resolution of this conflict.