Prologue

The purpose of this article is to suggest political and geopolitical priorities for Armenia (including Artsakh) and the Armenian diaspora to focus on in an effort to secure the existence of the Armenian statehood and the Armenian nation for the next sixteen years. The timeframe provided divides one century into three equal parts, each thirty three years long until 2099. The article doesn’t attempt to predict any event or development in Armenia, the surrounding region or the world at large, and will not be focusing on mid-term and long-term goals. The scope of the article will be limited by the next sixteen years and will attempt to suggest various ideas to focus on both for the Republic of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora from now on until 2033.

Background

It is the belief of the author that having a political and geopolitical foresight will help Armenia and the Armenian diaspora to secure the existence of Armenian identity and the Armenian statehood at minimum for the next sixteen years. Armenia and the Armenian diaspora should not be always in a situation where they are forced to react to a host of unexpected events happening to them, often finding themselves caught off guard, but rather take a proactive role with reasonable political and geopolitical foresight by preparing themselves for the unexpected and causing events to happen rather than waiting for events to happen to them.

As our history has often shown, the wait-and-see approach always resulted in devastating consequences that were often detrimental to the existence and prosperity of the Armenian identify and the Armenian statehood (e.g. the Armenian Genocide of 1915-1923; 1988-1990 Armenian massacres in Baku, Sumgait, etc.) A proactive approach to solving problems that exist today and preventing other problems from arising later requires one to anticipate what may be coming and prepare oneself accordingly. Furthermore, one needs to set a number of controlled events in motion while minimizing its anticipated negative consequences and maximizing one’s anticipated gains. For each possible type of development one needs to prepare a number of contingency plans for dealing with their consequences, both positive and negative.

Part 1

Analysis

Armenia and Artsakh

At present there seems to be some misunderstanding and confusion, even among Armenians, whether the Republics of Armenia and Artsakh are one entity or two separate entities. A closer examination of the reality on the ground indicates that they are one entity separated in name only. Although it may have made sense to take this rout in the early 1990s, when the administration of ex-president of Armenia Levon Petrosyan was readily giving away Artsakh to illegal and groundless Azerbaijani occupation, the political situation within Armenia and the geopolitical situation in the region has changed since then and no one in their right mind would consider doing so today or in any near future. Furthermore, the Four Day War in April has ruled out any thought of making any sort of territorial concessions in light of Azerbaijani military onslaught and barbarism that was unleashed against Armenian civilians: women and elderly, as well as towards the Armenian soldiers who were already killed in the fighting prior to being mutilated by them post-mortem.

As the bloody events of police station takeover in July have shown, any political leader in Armenia who may dare to contemplate such a possibility out loud will not last for long, but quickly find his place under the ground with a bullet in his head together with other traitors and enemy collaborators. Just recalling operation Nemesis in the 1920s-1930s should be enough to deter anyone from conceding any piece of Armenian territory to the enemies of Armenian people. There is a pronounced red line established by the Armenian populace that no government official will dare to cross to spare their lives from public anger and lethal consequences in store for them.

It is the right time for the Republic of Artsakh to merge with the Republic of Armenia into one political entity that it is already, in every way but name only. Artsakh is no different than any other province of Armenia and should be treated as such in par with others. The sooner this merger takes place the better for everyone. Officially part of the Armenian Republic, Artsakh will be able to attract foreign direct investments into its economy and greater investments from within the Republic of Armenia and diaspora as any talk of territorial concessions will end. As such, businesses will feel comfortable investing in the development of Artsakh’s agriculture, mining, tourism and high tech sectors of economy. The unification of Artsakh will also end Azerbaijani fantasies of dominating Artsakh thus forcing them to face the stark reality on the ground. The merger of two Armenian republics may happen either directly by decrees of both countries’ parliaments or through another public referendum.

The consequences of such a move may include the overthrowing of Aliyev’s regime in Azerbaijan and resumption of yet another war, most likely a short one similar to April’s war, against Armenian forces along the line of contact both in Artsakh and Nakhichevan. This round of warfare will most likely end just as abruptly as it starts. Loss of yet another strategic region to Armenian forces such as Nakhichevan or Kirovabad (Gandzak in Armenian), or recovery of previously lost Shahumyan region and parts of occupied Mardakert region will most likely lead to Azerbaijani capitulation and the end of war in South Caucasus. To avoid losing more territory, Azerbaijani gov’t will have no other choice but to accept the reality on the ground and sign a bilateral peace treaty with Armenia or get overthrown by a radical opposition similar to the one that brought Aliyev senior to power in 1994. The security of Armenia will be exceptionally enhanced as a result of such an outcome.

A more lasting peace in the region will allow Armenia to redirect its resources into badly needed economic development to raise the living standards of its population. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan will also allow both parties to restore commercial road and railroad communications, reduce negative political influences of regional and extra-regional actors and collectively reap benefits of global trade and economic integration taking place in the region. Part 2

Security

Since the Four Day War in April, the Armenian military has undergone many improvements. It has enhanced its positions along the line of contact, modernized its military equipment, acquired new weapon systems, invested more in training of its military personnel and introduced new forms of automation systems that have improved its intelligence gathering capabilities, situational awareness and its air defenses. Furthermore, continuous investments and development of domestic military industrial complex has put the Armenian military on its way of attaining relative self-sufficiency within the next five to ten years and helped Armenia to attain better deterrence capabilities against future Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression.

Additional resources being poured into the military from Armenian diaspora has contributed to further improvements along the line of contact, such as bringing running water and electricity to a number of Armenian garrisons along the line of contact in Artsakh. Acquisition of new military hardware to fight off Azerbaijani drone attacks has enhanced the security of Armenian military units stationed along the frontline. It will be hard to imagine Azerbaijani military or its mercenaries having any chance to successfully utilize attack drones or any other advance military equipment in the way they were previously used during the Four Day War in April that caused serious damage to Armenian military positions and personnel in the battle field.

Based on experience gained during the Four Day War in April, Armenia should consider establishing another layer of defense in the rear of its frontline troops, inside small towns and villages surrounding the line of contact. A twenty four hour ready National Guard made up of local inhabitants defending their towns and villages should be introduced to prevent any possible infiltrations of civilian settlements by Azeri-Turkish commandos as it happened in the Talish village (Mardakert Region) during the last round of war. Members of the National Guard should be allowed to have quick access to armories stationed in their towns and villages under Defense Ministry supervision or be permitted to keep their weapons at home for indefinite period of time as it is the case for men in Switzerland. Constant civil defense drills in the border regions should be a frequent occurrence and inseparable part of life for the civilians inhabiting along the entire length of the border with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Considering that Armenia is surrounded by real or potential enemies who can leverage considerable firepower and human resources immediately across the border it is very important for the Armenian military to attain near-nuclear capabilities to deter any future aggression by any of its neighbors. Development of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous weapon systems such as attack drones, unmanned tanks and artillery systems, as well as ground based supersonic cruise missiles capable of carrying out precision strikes with multi-purpose payloads, and capable of avoiding interception by modern air and missile defense systems in possession of its neighbors should become a priority. Additional improvements in intelligence collection must be made continuously to prevent another surprise attack in the future.

Moreover, Armenia should take upon itself the role of the defender of ethnic and religious minorities in the greater Middle East, and a welcome arbiter of ongoing conflicts tearing apart the region for the past two decades. By taking an active stand against genocides and massacres taking place in the Middle East Armenia can become a source for stability in the turbulent region. For Armenia to secure its continued existence in the twenty first century it must develop a formidable military force to be reckoned with, a capable force in possession of the latest military hardware that its military industrial complex can provide. Its military must be the best trained in the region and among most capable fighting forces in the world. No amount of public and private investments should be spared for achieving what is necessary to deter any of its enemies to the fullest and to be able to maintain a peaceful coexistence in the region for many years to come.

Acquiring near-nuclear capabilities to deter any country in the region from attacking Armenia at any time should be consistently pursued. Development of advance weapon systems of the next generation such as electro-magnetic railguns and laser cannons for shooting down cruise missiles and supersonic gliders that its enemies may employ in the future should be considered and aggressively pursued. Getting strong enough to the point of being able to overcome its fears of devastating foreign aggression, potentially attaining the status of a nuclear power and declaring a state of geopolitical neutrality should be the end goal.

Part 3

Economy

The Armenian economy is gradually stabilizing and getting better. Present day Armenia is no different from other developing post-communist countries and has its share of problems that are unique to Armenia. Over all, Armenia’s economy is getting significantly better than what it was before. Where one sees problems, others find opportunities. It is true that various problems and challenges are present in various parts of Armenia’s economy, at the same time those challenges are possible to overcome, and those problems are possible to solve. Greater political transparency and elimination of monopolies stifling the economy need to be aggressively pursued.

Granted that one can argue that most of the economic development took place in Yerevan and nearby towns, however, that doesn’t mean that it will continue to be the norm. Having a relatively young and talented workforce, natural inclination for trade and superior work habits among many of its inhabitants is a very strong starting point for pulling Armenia’s economy forward. Many pre-requisites are present for the economic development to spread quickly to other towns and villages found further away from Yerevan.

Reinvigorating the fight against theft, nepotism and corruption will contribute to more economic development and overall improvement of the economic situation for larger segments of Armenia’s population. Break up of monopolies and spin offs will allow greater economic gains thus helping to spread prosperity to larger portions of the populace. Financial services, mining, tourism, education, medicine and IT industries are among the fastest developing in Armenia and should be pursued with great zeal going forward.

Education

Prosperity can spread to greater portions of Armenia’s population once the education system in Armenia refines itself to meet the needs of the domestic market. Introduction of computer programming and robotics into high school curriculum is a major step in developing the skills necessary for finding jobs after high school. In fact, STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Math) curriculum needs to be introduced in elementary school to allow greater time for students to develop the technical skills and knowhow necessary to be competitive in the domestic market and global markets at large.

To advance the development of sciences and technologies in Armenia large private and public investments are needed. College education must be revamped to better meet the needs of the market. Greater interactions between Armenian scientists and their colleagues from around the world must be achieved by organizing international conferences and workshops in Armenia. Furthermore, greater efforts need to be made to attract non-Armenian scientists and scientific projects to Armenia, so that Armenia can benefit from such research as alternative sources of energy, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, stem cell research and genetic therapy.

Diaspora

Armenian organizations in diaspora must play an active role in pursuit of historical justice and restitutions for the Armenian Genocide by taking Turkish gov’t and German genocide collaborators (banks and corporations) to court. Efforts to preserve Armenian identify abroad, reaching out to Armenian communities in distress such as those in Syria and Iraq, and facilitating greater economic trade between Armenia and the United States, as well as between Armenia and the European Union need to be pursued more consistently than before. Furthermore, Armenian communities around the world need to play a greater role in helping Armenian businesses to expand into the markets of Middle East and Asia regions.

A greater effort must be made to reach out to “hidden” Armenians of Turkey. An Armenian diaspora of two million or more has been waiting for more than a century to reconnect with the Armenian world to help them find their origins and purpose. That is a vast human potential that has been neglected for too long and cannot be ignored any further. Diaspora based satellite TV/Radio programs in Turkish and Kurdish languages, and Hamshen Armenian dialect must be established and broadcast into Turkey and greater Middle East region from Iran, Lebanon or Egypt. The TV/Radio broadcasting must also be live streamed on the internet to make them more accessible to all Armenians in search of their identity.

Globalization has shrunk the distances between nations while the internet connected everyone around the world. For the Armenian diaspora the time has come to collect its fragments left behind from the devastating genocide and to reconstitute itself as one unified whole. A diasporan representation in Armenia’s Parliament and a greater accountability of diasporan resources provided must be consistently demanded and scrupulously reviewed. Armenia is the tree that holds our nation together in a symbiotic relationship with our ancient past while our diasporan communities around the world are its many branches. No branch will survive without the tree. Let’s keep it strong and ever growing, not to shed tears in the end.