The highlights of 2016 for Armenia (if we can call them “high” lights) would be the Four Day War in April, the popular and violent acts of discontent in July, and the change of ruling government in September. For 2017 the outlook for the country may be grim as well, but hopeful as the newly formed cabinet lead by Karen Karapetyan makes efforts to reduce the corruption in the government, improve the nation’s defense capabilities and raise economic living standards for the populace.

Analysis

2016 was a challenging year for Armenia. The Four Day War in April, resulting in major losses of human life, in conjunction with the loss of territories, revealed a scale of corruption within the Armenian military that had significantly undermined its military readiness. The war also revealed the resilience of the Armenian people, including the diaspora, to self-organize and take up arms in defense of their Fatherland, support the families of the fallen soldiers and rebuild devastated border villages through worldwide collective efforts despite disagreements with the government. The war and its subsequent consequences showed the wisdom of the Armenian nation to distinguish between the country of their origins that is everlasting and the government that runs it for a brief period of time in terms of historical time scale.

The bloody crisis in July associated with hostage taking and armed occupation of a police precinct in Yerevan by a group of armed men, including former veterans of the Artsakh liberation war revealed the extent of public anger and resentment toward the ruling regime in Armenia which had lost a lot of legitimacy and goodwill in the eyes of the public, thus prompting the dissolution of the previous cabinet and creation of a new government headed by a new Prime Minister albeit with the same President.

Since the Four Day War in April, Armenia’s military capabilities have been rapidly augmented with the acquisition of a number of Iskander-E ballistic missile systems, Smerch MLRS wheeled artillery pieces, various electronic warfare systems, night vision and thermal vision optics, high end surveillance cameras, upgraded T-72 battle tanks, Tigr armored combat transportation vehicles, a number of various anti-tank weapon systems including new handheld RPGs and latest MPADS. New class of UAVs commonly referred to as “kamikaze drones” was quickly developed in Armenia along with new anti-drone systems.

As Azerbaijan inked new weapons deals with Pakistan to the tune of five hundred million dollars and acquired latest Israeli air and missile defense systems knowns as Iron Dome and Barak-8, Armenia deepened its cooperation with Russia by forming a collective army unit under unified Armenian-Russian military command. Further moves by Azerbaijan aimed at forming political and military alliances with Pakistan and Israel were countered by counterbalancing Armenian moves aimed at developing closer relations with military establishments of India and Iran.

Additionally, to break the economic isolation imposed by the decades-old Turkish and Azerbaijani blockades, Armenia and Iran discussed building a regional railroad for improving trade and increasing cargo transportation between the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf that will go through the Armenian territory. Additional large economic projects between Armenia and Iran are expected to be agreed upon and implemented within the next few years.

Conclusion

Armenia’s outlook for 2017 may be grim in the short term, but hopeful in mid to long term. Continuous emigration of people from Armenia seeking better economic opportunities, and repeated attempts by Aliyev’s government in Azerbaijan to forcefully subjugate Armenians to his will by occupying Artsakh through means of warfare and low to mid intensity violence on the front line, will continue unabated. In the meantime efforts lead by Karen Karapetian, the new Prime Minister of Armenia, to improve the nation’s defense capabilities, significantly reduce corruption in the government, and improve the living standards of all Armenians, may be the key to changing the country around toward a better and hopeful future for Armenia.

Happy New Year, and merry Christmas! Շնորհաւոր նոր տարի եւ սուրբ ծնունդ.