Summary
For the past twenty six years Armenian strategic thinking in Armenia and diaspora was mostly reactive rather than proactive, static rather than flexible.
Politically Armenia failed to register significant gains in its foreign policy and ended up significantly isolated in various international forums. Furthermore, Armenia lost its strategic significance in the eyes of the international community and became an irrelevant actor in the region. Thus the time has come for Armenia to reassess its national interests and play a pro-active role in the region and abroad that will enhance its national security, improve its economy and make Armenia matter in the region.
Analysis
Politically, Armenia has a non-existent Ministry of Foreign Affairs that has failed to accomplish anything of significant value leaving Armenia isolated (both economically and politically) and with little strategic value in the eyes of the international community. Its non-existent foreign policy and instinctive reliance on Russia have limited the scope of its maneuvers and made Armenia an irrelevant actor in the region. Major economic projects are circumventing Armenia while very little investments are made to develop new projects that include Armenia.
Instead of finding its own sources of funding to implement such projects, the Armenian leadership relies heavily on foreign sources of financing which puts Armenia in a precarious position considering that foreign funding generally comes with strings attached. Some of these conditions have the potential to undermine Armenian security and prosperity in the mid to long term. Furthermore, if the widespread corruption within the Armenian government is not eliminated or significantly reduced the expected public benefit deriving from these projects will be negated and nullified.
In the military-political sphere, Armenia found itself in an unreliable security organization where its supposed “allies” are blocking the Armenian representative from taking a leadership position according to its own articles of confederation, and they continue to sell offensive weapons to Armenia’s archenemy Azerbaijan. The antagonistic role of Kazakhstan and Belarus toward Armenia in the Collective Security and Treaty Organization (CTSO) has undermined the organization’s capacity to serve its purpose and made it into a platform for Azerbaijani propaganda.
Indecisive Russian leadership within the CSTO and its own complicity in arming and enhancing the Azerbaijani war machine discredits its role as a reliable ally for Armenia and cannot be viewed as a neutral intermediary in the OSCE Minsk Group. Russia’s ill-conceived attempts to bring Turkey to the negotiation table as an intermediary for resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict further undermines its role as the “ally” that Armenia ascribes to it. As long as Russia continues to arm Azerbaijan it cannot be and should not be treated as a reliable ally for Armenia but rather a dubious partner that appears to be vested in the continuation of the conflict.
Furthermore, lack of any action by the CSTO outside of weak public criticism toward Azerbaijan in light of the Azerbaijani military incursion into the Republic of Armenia, one of its allied members, on December 29-30 of 2016 has further delegitimized the purpose of the organization and revealed the sense of indifference toward Armenia exhibited by Kazakhstan and Belarus. One can only wonder what other ill-conceived surprises to expect for Armenia from its “allied” members of CSTO.
Some may argue that perhaps it is time for Armenia to reconsider its current military alliances in light of the facts presented above; however, in most likelihood Azerbaijan will join CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union as soon as Armenia leaves those structures. Later addition of Turkey as it slowly exits NATO to the above mentioned Russian led structures is also conceivable. Therefore, Armenia should stay within those structures but for a different purpose: to deter Azerbaijan and Turkey from joining CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union.
In the international arena, Armenia should come up with its own proposition, a sort of “Yerevan Principles” to counter the anti-Armenian Madrid Principles that prescribe the surrender of liberated Armenian territories, an undefined status for the Republic of Artsakh and deployment of unknown peacekeepers. As history has shown from Bosnia to Rwanda, such peacekeepers will not be interested in defending Armenians against Azerbaijani military onslaught.
In most likelihood they will stand aside and let the Azerbaijani military slaughter Armenians in Artsakh or even take part in the slaughter as was the case in 1992-1993 when Russian troops forcefully deported Armenians from the Shahumyan Region and parts of Mardakert while allowing Azerbaijani forces to engage in rape and murder of Armenians left behind, and to actively engage in looting of Armenian properties and personal belongings.
Such “Yerevan Principles” need to outline red lines that Armenia will not cross: ruling out the surrender of any territories under Armenian control including territories that were liberated during 1988-1994 war; international recognition of Artsakh as part of the Republic of Armenia; etc. The nullification of the Treaty of Moscow and the Treaty of Kars should be vigorously pursued, while the Treaty of Sevres needs to be used as the legal basis for the conflict resolution.
Recommendations
It seems very obvious that members of Eurasian Economic Union would prefer to see Turkey and Azerbaijan as its members rather than Armenia. These are economies that are based on the availability of vast natural resources and large consumer markets which Armenia lacks. For all its purposes Armenia has a very limited amount of natural resources, insignificant purchasing power and a very small economy to present much economic interest for the other members to pursue. Therefore, expanding Armenia’s economy may require attaining bilateral trade agreements with emerging and developing Asian, Latin American and African countries that would most likely be interested in products and services that Armenia has to offer.
Pursuing tariff-free bilateral trade agreements with the United States and EU is another option to consider and should be pursued more vigorously than before. Armenia’s economy cannot develop quickly without introduction of innovative new technologies developed in the West. Armenia’s IT sector cannot grow significantly without close cooperation with leading Asian economies in IT and Robotics such as China, Japan and South Korea. More effort should be made to attract Asian majors such as Samsung, Hyundai, Panasonic, Toyota and others to encourage them to open factories and service centers in Armenia.
Militarily, Armenia is irrelevant to the security of CSTO members, especially for Kazakhstan and Belarus. In case of large scale war breaking out between Armenia and Azerbaijan the probability for Kazakhstan and Belarus taking part in the war on the side of Armenia, as mandated by CSTO, are very slim to non-existent. Short of neutrality, the opposite is more likely to occur. Thus relying on its own military defense capabilities will be the right course for Armenia to pursue. Adoption of the Israeli defense model, where women are drafted into the military, may need to be considered as everyone in Armenia should have basic military training and be ready for a bigger war that may loom on the horizon.
Finding and cultivating additional security partnerships with regional and extra-regional powers is necessary. Renegotiating the conditions of Russian military presence in Armenia should be considered to derive a greater security benefit from the arrangement. Enhancing military-technical cooperation with India and Iran should be pursued further. Heavily investing in the Armenian military industrial complex is necessary and most promising for enhancing the security of Armenia. Adapting the Swiss model of maintaining an armed population, especially in the border regions of Armenia should be considered and pursued, leading to the establishment of a National Guard made up of residents of border towns and villages under the command of the Defense Ministry of Armenia.
Armenia must make every effort to pursue its own national interests. It is not about being pro-Russian or pro-Western, it is about being pro-Armenian.